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California or Texas would be my guess.
Big populations and heavy focus on sports.
It also really depends on the sport. Indiana has a huge focus on basketball and Texas basically treats football like a religion.
New York isn’t generally known as a big sports state but like you said, based on population alone and having lots of professional teams it has to rank up there.
I think in general your thought is correct, the most successful states are just going to be the ones with more people.
Maybe not the most successful, but I would say Alabama and North Carolina have probably ‘punched above their weight’ in sports (might just be a bias of proximity tho)
California
In terms of college sports Connecticut has to be up there. UConn has numerous titles in men’s and women’s basketball and some other sports (soccer and field hockey, I think), Trinity is dominant in squash, Qunnipiac and Yale are perennial contenders in hockey, ECSU has won the D3 baseball World Series many times.
I’m gonna say Texas, not only because they have plentiful sports teams in general but because the Dallas Cowboys are the highest grossing sports team on the planet, those fuckers make INSANE money.