Is it common for US presidents running for reelection to have to go through party primary against other candidates, or are they automatically the party’s nominee?

7 comments

1. They do but it’s kind of a given that they’ll win, Trump for example won with 94% of the vote in 2020

2. Primaries happen, there’s usually someone running against them, but it’s almost always just a formality. A president who faces a real primary challenge is generally seen as being in such bad political trouble that they should reconsider running for reelection at all (I can’t really think of a time this has happened since LBJ in the 60s).

3. It’s rare for there to be any serious party challengers against an incumbent president.

   Biden may be an exception in 2024, though I think it’s more likely he’ll choose (or be encouraged by the Democratic party) not to run for re-election.

4. Often they technically go through a primary but its pretty much a formality. Incumbents running for reelection usually won’t actively campaign or debate their opponents, who will usually be fringe candidates with obscure backgrounds.

   This isn’t written in stone and there is precedent in modern Americans history for incumbents facing legit challenges. In 1968, during the height of the Vietnam War, President Lyndon John faced a primary challenge from an anti-war Senator named Eugene McCarthy. McCarthy had a much stronger-than-expected showing in the New Hampshire primary; Johnson still won but it was close than anyone expected. After that, Johnson became convinced that he didn’t have enough support to win re-election and announced that he wouldn’t run for re-election in 1968. This situation was pretty unusual and I cannot think of any analogous situation involving an incumbent running for re-election in modern American history.

   However, the current chatter is that Joe Biden might be facing such a primary challenge in 2024. His approval ratings are very low and most of his own party does not want him to run again.

5. Most of the time the opposition is fringe.

   Most recent times where the outcome was unsure

   Jimmy carter was opposed by Ted Kennedy in 1980.

   Bush sr. was opposed by Patrick Buchanan.

   Both were never really in danger of losing the primaries, but both were weakened enough to lose the general election

   Bush also ended up with serious third party contender, Ross Perot. Which might have cost him the general election.

6. They have primaries but they’re usually pro forma, not seriously contested etc. As you might imagine, turnout is way down for incumbent party presidential primaries, even if down-ticket elections might be seriously contested and important.

   I could be misremembering because it was ten years ago but when I voted in the 2012 democratic primary, which I did because of downticket stuff, I don’t think there was even anyone running against Obama. Pretty easy choice when there’s only one guy to vote for lol.

7. Party primaries are common, even if your party is currently in power.

   It acts as a sort of “check” of elected politicians to stick to their campaign promises. If the politician has done (or at least tried to do) most of the things they said they’d do, the party primary is just a minor sideshow that barely gets noticed.

   But if the incumbent politician has broken promises, not accomplished much, gotten into scandals, etc? They’ve seriously got to worry about their own voters: politicians in office can and often do get removed from their party’s ticket if there’s a feeling that they’ve let the party down.