Should I message someone first?

I (22F) have always had trouble making friends, starting from elementary school, but college to now has been incredibly lonely. I went to school in a small city so most of the friend groups you formed in elementary/middle school stuck all throughout high school. College was a whole new environment and by the time I finished my last quarter I’d made a grand total of two friends (one from orientation and my roommate, though I don’t seem them much anymore).

Due to health issues I withdrew from my university and transferred to a college closer to home. During orientation this guy started talking to me, which surprised me a bit but we ended up having a brief but nice conversation and exchanged instas. I planned on seeing him again on day 2 of orientation but I had a family thing and ended up skipping. We don’t have any classes together and I’m a commuter student while he lives on campus. I want to dm him but I’m worried that I’ll seem too forward. He’s a first year so I’m assuming he already has his own friend group with his hallmates. I know I’m probably overthinking things but a part of me is wondering if he was interested in being friends he’d have messaged me first. Should I just go ahead and dm him? Idek what to say and I’m worried if I wait too long he won’t remember me, if he even still does. Help.

Tl;dr – guy started talking to me at a college orientation, we exchanged instas but haven’t interacted since. Should I message him first or wait?