As a Russian person, living in Russia and communicating with various other Russian people, both pro-gov’t and anti-gov’t, I would very much love to hear a foreign point of view and compare it to the situation I have around me right now. Basically I want to know how close to reality (or how far off from it) your opinions on the possibility of altering Russia’s politics are.
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No. If Russia wants change it’s going to have to come from within.
we are told Putin gives 0 fucks about his people and you guys are going to starve because he’s so evil and unstable.
Tbh I have no idea what kind of leader he is or what type of policies he’s even for or against since 99% of Putin stuff is painting him as modern hitler with nukes
Of course it *can* be changed. Any country’s governance can be changed. The second a government loses support of its military, it’s gone.
But it’s really unclear to me whether conditions exist in Russia where that would be remotely imaginable any time in, say, the next five years.
For sure, governments change all the time. The Russian Federation is only like 30 years old.
Any political situation can be changed, you just have to keep in mind it doesn’t necessarily change in a time frame we want it to. Russia itself is a pretty good example of it. You guys radically changed your governments twice in the same century.
Maybe there’s a Romanov or two out there somewhere
The only way forward is regime change, whether by the west or by another revolution in Russia.
Not by the United States, no.
For sure. The history of the world is full of examples of revolutions and governmental shifts (Good and bad).
Do the Russian people want change? I’ve heard mixed views on this. Speaking out is terrifying in a country that throws people in jails for disagreeing with the government. And it’s not just marching, I feel like Russia would have to have a bloody revolution to change.
I hope, things can change. I think it’d be to everyone’s benefit if Putin stepped down and the country gave democracy another try. The war and the atrocities are not something we should be seeing in this day and age. We should be better than this. (And I say we because it’s not *just* Russia. The whole world needs to be doing a better job at maintaining peace.)
I don’t think the Russian people are ready to rise up against Putin, not yet. But if something happens and his control of the military slips, I think he’s in trouble.
If enough people in Russia want it to then yes. Governments change in countries all the time. Hopefully for the better if it does.
It can improve, but not under Putin.
It can be changed but that change will have to come from within, we can put pressure on Russia to encourage change but ultimately if anything is going to change it’s going to have to come from the Russian people and change isn’t going to come easy or fast but it is possible, it has been done before by others and it will be done again by others it is not impossible. The only thing affecting whether or not things will change is how willing the Russian people are to make things change
That’s up to you guys, not us. Delta Force isn’t going to parachute into the Urals and pop Vlad in his bunker. If anything is going to change, it will need to come from Russians. The answer to whether citizens can do that is always yes.
my impression from the outside is that Putin has spent 20 years cementing his authority and eroding the democratic structures that Russia had.
so any significant change in the government would basically only happen if:
* he loses the support of the military and economic leaders
* things get so bad that there’s a full-scale revolution
* he dies and the replacement is more democratically-inclined than he was (which seems unlikely, but has happened before — that’s pretty much how Spain became a democracy)
I think that unfortunately until Putin dies or is deposed Russia and the US are going to have a relationship like we do with North Korea or Iran going forward.
Any worthwhile political change must come from within Russia, otherwise it will play right into Putin’s narrative that he is a victim of western aggression. Unfortunately I don’t see that happening as long as Putin maintains such strict control over the press and media and can jail and/or murder political opponents with impunity.
I don’t know about public opinion in Russia to accurately estimate how likely positive change is but from what I do know my expectations are not high.
If Russians want their government to change, they’re going to have to do it themselves.
I think Russian security forces & military would have to turn against him since he will not step down, and Russia won’t be invaded. If the sanctions get to full oil embargo + complete severance of russian banking system from swift, I would imagine Putin starts to feel really threatened by his own people.
There really needs to be a major upheaval in the current regime. Putin’s just poisoning the well.
If I may, Are the Russian people willing to do whatever it takes to change your course.
Theoretically? Sure.
Practically? I’m… not confident. If the news coming out of Ukraine regarding the behavior of the Russian soldiers is any indication, rural Russians are *far* worse off socioeconomically and informationally than I’d previously believed. People in such a position are much more susceptible to propaganda and lack many of the resources needed to effect change.
That essentially leaves major cities like St. Petersburg and Moscow, but that’s not where the military draws its blood from, so unless the military and law enforcement divorce themselves more thoroughly from the political regime to the point that they *can* decline to put down protests and insurrections, I don’t see it happening.
I want it to. I’d love to have amicable relations between the West and a reformed Russia, drained of corruption and autocrats. I’m just doubtful I’ll see it in my lifetime, if the past few centuries of Russian history are any indication.
To be honest, the only way I really see it happening soonish is if you have another fragmentation like what happened when the Soviet Union fell, and even then, it’d only apply to some of the newly formed states. Sure, Putin could have a heart attack tomorrow, but that doesn’t mean the next guy won’t be roughly the same. The interests of the oligarchs haven’t changed. Even if it was Navalny, the dude’s still a nationalist who wouldn’t give up Crimea.
If the government ended state control of the media and allowed foreign news sources, perhaps. Changes in Russia must start with the Russian people.
I have no faith in the Russian Government and only some faith in the Russian people.
We can change whatever we want, the only question is how much ammunition are you willing to pay for?
Russia’s had what? Three governments in the last hundred years, all of them have ended up as screaming crotch fires that ruin everything for everyone everywhere? Maybe this time we should try not letting the Russians govern Russia. They obviously can’t handle it.
It would be up to the Russian people to change it, but it’s not impossible. It would probably be difficult to get to those conditions quickly. The Soviet Union collapsed and the Tzars were removed after years and years of continued hardship. Outside change is unlikely and undesirable for many reasons.
I’m sure it’s possible but would say it’s unlikely.
Who knows though maybe the rumours of Putin being ill are true, could be a succession crisis in the next few years.
For the other side there’s a non-zero chance the US has some sort of coup also, crazier things have happened in history but I would rate that possibility much lower.
Not without a revolution.
Only if Russians decide to change it. We can’t do anything about it from here.
It can. Russia is a country of change. from the end of the age of the Tsar to the End of the Soviet Union to now is a timeline of about 100 years. That’s relatively short in the grand scheme of things. Will it change? Only time will tell.
Not under the current government no.
No empire lasts forever.
Yes, the Russian people can rise up, kill Putin, and start a new government. Short of that? No.
>As a Russian person, living in Russia and communicating with various other Russian people, both pro-gov’t and anti-gov’t, I would very much love to hear a foreign point of view and compare it to the situation I have around me right now. Basically I want to know how close to reality (or how far off from it) your opinions on the possibility of altering Russia’s politics are.
News everywhere these days is fake. I think that it’s even more fake in the Russian Federation than in the USA, but that thought is just because I’m from here. I can’t know anything about world events. For example, I can’t know who’s losing worse in Ukraine.
Implement fire hose of falsehood antidotes. Keep a secret journal and document all negative behavior that happens in real life and everything you receive from the news. If the news that you’re watching “moves forward” a lot, meaning changes its story a lot, then you might as well be watching the Spinning Dancer. If you get tired of recording illusions, it’s a clear sign that it’s been time to stop receiving it. You may have to get rid of your device, such as a TV or a radio. If you’re getting bad news on Instagram, Facebook, or Twitter, get and follow advice on how to permanently delete your account. If you’re getting bad news on Reddit or VKontakte, unsubscribe.
I think it more likely that economic sanctions would compel powerful interests inside Russia to change the course of Russia’s government, but I still think this unlikely. Perhaps that may change if Russian oil and gas are also embargoed by most of the world.
I’ll try my best to keep my wording neutral despite my personal opinions
My understanding is that for the most part the higher echelons of the Russian Government are mostly either Putin loyalists or people who came from the FSB, which has very close ties with Putin being ex-KGB. Most geopolitical analysts I follow say that this conflict, for many reasons that are too long for me to type out here, is extremely critical for Russian interests and they can’t afford to go back empty handed for more reasons than just Putins pride. I’d say based on my knowledge I highly doubt any chances of the Russian government backing off in this conflict.
Unlikely, Russia has no history of democracy and things are likely going to get worse due to sanctions.
Our only hope was in the 90s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Its no surprise that people chose authoritarianism again considering the type of hell Russia went through in the 90s. Im not saying we are at fault but we lost a golden opportunity to develop a democratic Russia.
anything can be changed, nothing lasts forever
Absolutely.
But so long as the same captain is sailing the ship, they’re likely going to plot the same course.
The change will need to come from the people though. and I don’t know how likely it is they don’t just end up with another strongman.
Once a state has been captured in its entirety by ruthless criminals, the private businesses, the politicians, the military members, and a significant portion of the population, it is **really** difficult to change course politically. Russia kills it’s opposition. Unless the Russian citizenry are prepared to die en masse, then no, Russia is a lost cause. It’s developed. The regime will turn to China to overrun it’s borders and to aid them in spying on its citizenry more closely, disappearing people, etc… before relinquishing power. The Oligarchs are oligarchs only by the force of the Russian state and the government members are all oligarchs too. If they have to choose between, potentially, jail or exorbitant wealth, I don’t think it’s so hard a choice. Only if their choices are being cannibalized and jail will they relinquish their authority. America can make the people of Russia want to kill their government by strangling the country, maybe. We can flood the borders with Ukrainians and Poles and attempt to wage an intelligence war from the inside, breeding opposition. We can ostracize from the global order and markets, intercept tankers, put it under embargo, but this is risky. Only Russians can change Russia.
I believe one route to ending Russia’s self-destruction is that we give Putin a golden bridge back to Russia from Ukraine and he declares victory in some way so that he can show face domestically. Russia so far has effectively lost the first of this war as portrayed by our propaganda/news.
The world will then keep moving and Russia will slowly recover. My money is that putin stays in power until he is senile.
The USA war in Afghanistan was a cluster and we are still here. Bush never even got close to a trial.
I have several Russian American friends and aquaintances here in the states. I have nothing against the people of Russia. It’s the government that is a problem. I’m guessing there a lot of people who hate the American government and not everyday people. I do understand a lot of what I hear about Russia has a western bias. When trump was in office everyone that wanted him out did something. Maybe if all Russians knew that if the country united and every citizen all at once made a small act of rebellion, it would add up to a huge unignorable shockwave. And I think persistence is key. Non stop small acts of rebellion will chip away at them. Remember there are 147 million Russian citizens and just a handful at the top
Of course it could, but I don’t want my government to have any role in it.
The Russian people are amazing. But the Russian people have this knack for choosing the very worst leadership possible. The Czars, Stalin, and now Putin. Corrupt, murderous autocrats who steal from the people and feed their relentless lust for power.
There is no reason why Russia shouldn’t be a wealthy, peaceful, and happy country. It has vast material wealth. But it suffers from an oppressive leadership that take the wealth for themselves and don’t give a damn about the welfare of the Russian people.
Let me put it another way. Ukraine was never a threat to Russia. NATO never had any interest in invading Russia. The United States never had any interest in invading Russia. And all those former Warsaw Pact countries joined NATO as fast as they could based on how Russia absolutely exploited them from 1945 to 1990.
As you’ve likely figured out, the people of Ukraine were not interested in being part of Russia. And if you don’t have access to the videos of the atrocities being committed, it’s because your leadership controls the media. It is absolutely shocking what we’re seeing. And it’s not fake.
So the Russian people only have one of two options. 1) Figure out how to get rid of your current leadership quickly and establish a true democracy that holds the interests of the Russian people at heart or 2) Stand by Putin while he takes you down the road to ruin.
We have a saying. People get the kind of government they deserve. At this, the hinge of history, you have to decide what government you really want to have.
Unfortunately, paranoia seems rampant in Russia. They are the king of the conspiracy theorists. And that’s saying something with the Arab world in the competition. But the Arab world might have _some_ justification in that they are generally militarily in a different class than bigger powers. So in that sense they are potentially vulnerable. But in Russia it’s just ridiculous. Putin actually said just yesterday (day before?) that he had to attack Ukraine because they were planning an assault on Russia. Sure. Tell me another one, Vlad.
Why would a country with 40 million people, a 150,000 man military, a tenth as much hardware, and no nuclear weapons attack a country with 145 million people, a million man army, hundreds of tanks and advanced fighters and 6000 nuclear weapons?
It doesn’t even matter if he doesn’t believe it himself, he is feeding that paranoia to people with a firehose. It’s hard to see how anything could change if he has so many ready consumers eager to drink that up.
I believe in giving individual people, like phoebanatiqe, their due respect. I will wait for you to tell me what you believe before I form an opinion about you. I know there are Russians against the war and against the current system. More power to you. But I also believe “the Russian people” are the fundamental problem. They have no true self-respect. They submit to the bluster and therefore they get “the government they deserve” because they haven’t, as a group, insisted on something better. The Poles and the Romanians and all the other peoples who have thrown off dictatorships knew they deserved better. (That doesn’t mean automatic perfection, but it has to be the first step.) The Russian people have to decide they deserve better than malignant paranoia and insist on getting something better. Then maybe things will change.