How hard is it to predict the weather in America?

38 comments

1. They are actually pretty accurate most of the time

2. Very rarely are the weather forecasts 100% wrong. It is more like they will say “it is going to rain all day” and then it only rains until 11am.

3. It’s pretty spot on most of the time where I am it’s actually pretty amazing how they have it down to the hours and minutes and how far into the future the forecast goes out to.

4. Computer models are pretty amazing — but just yesterday the meteorologist showed 2 of the computer models instead of saying “this is what we will get”.

   Depending on temp we might get 5 inches of snow or just rain. We were right on the line and get got a couple inches.

   Meteorologist are pretty skilled, but there are small things they can’t predict and they can have pretty dramatically different outcomes.

5. It probably depends where it is, but yes some places in America you can never trust the weather forecast. I live in Colorado by the Rocky Mountains and we can wake up have it be in the mid-40s then at lunch it could snow and be below freezing then at dinner it could be in the low 60s with clear skys

6. It’s as hard as predicting the weather in all of Mexico or all of Germany. Countries with large land masses have a lot of variability. Predicting the weather in Ireland is much easier, or El Salvador or Iceland. “African” weather depends on the country as well. Which country in Africa? Many are larger than Texas.

7. They’re accurate at predicting it. The problem is it changes so frequently. Tomorrow it’ll be 70 degrees, and Friday it’s gonna be a high of 37.

   That’s not a joke. That’s the actual forecast here in Ohio😂. It literally goes from summer to winter in a day.

8. not a meteorologist but I don’t think it’s easier or harder to predict the weather here than it is anywhere else

9. We had a forecast last year that estimated 2-20 inches of snow for a nor’easter winter storm. It was a complicated storm system though and they struggled to really pin down what was going on with it right up until precipitation started. We ended up with 3 inches of snow and some ice.

   They’re usually more accurate and precise on total expected precipitation amounts

10. It largely depends on your area.

    Certain parts of the US are more consistent than others.

    There’s a common saying in New England that if you don’t like the weather just wait 15 minutes it will change.

    They’re usually pretty good about giving you the basic gist but they might be off by how much it snows or exactly where it snows or how long a storm lasts etc

11. I swear you go anywhere in the US and the weather predictions are accurate, except for one damn place… Texas…

    Jokes aside it’s pretty predictable, just we have a saying about texas weather, it’s bipolar.

12. Depends on a couple things.

    1. Distance from a Major body of Water( Oceans/ Great Lakes). Major bodies of water tend to make the average tempurate differences day to day more similar.
    2. Proximity to Jets stream historic patterns. Minnesota, Wisconsin the Dakotas etc. are more or less exactly where the jet stream tends to stay during winter so winter weather is somewhat unpredictable(aside from being below freezing temperatures)
    3. How stable the air mass is over the North Pole at any given moment.
    4. Whether or not a Tropical Storm or Hurricane is in the Western Gulf of Mexico
    5. Stability of Air Masses off the Southern coast of Mainland Alaska(huge effect of snow fall in Continental US)

13. MIA just finished a massive reno/expansion of the north end in the mid 2010s. If I had to guess I’d say you were probably in the older section which is due for an update.

14. There was a 100% chance of snow last night and then it didn’t snow lol.

    Besides the amount of precipitation it’s usually pretty accurate.

15. Note– I don’t know anything about African weather forecasting.

    Forecasts tend to be pretty accurate within about 5 days.

    Note that the USA has many regions with very different climates.

    We don’t really have the same distinct “Rainy Season”/ “Dry season” that some parts of the world have. In my city, the driest month is February with an average of 75mm of rain, wettest month is September with an average of 111mm of rain. All months average between 6-8 rainy days. So there isn’t really a dramatic difference.

    Some types of weather can have very sharp differences across small areas, so that can lead to inaccuracies. For example, my area is often very close to the line between “rain” and “snow” when we get a winter storm. A couple of miles can make the difference between “rained all day” and “snowed all day”, and the forecast doesn’t always get the dividing line exactly right. Thunderstorms (common in the summer) are sometimes very small and intense, so geographically close places can have very different weather.

16. The US is quite large, and the predictability of the weather varies drastically.

    In my part of the country in the plains to the east of the Rocky Mountains, the weather can fluctuate quite a lot day to day and the forecasts more than a day or two out usually aren’t very accurate (or are accurate but “off” by 1-3 days).

    We suffer from continental climate, essentially meaning we’re too far away from the natural temperature regulating effects of the oceans. The mountains to the east also creates a pressure barrier that causes more fluctuation. Finally, we exist where the dry cold air from the north meets the warm humid air from the south, which create even more weather variation depending on exactly where the line between the two is at any particular time. All of this interaction between cold dry air and hot humid air is also what causes so many tornados.

    On the plus side, the spring and fall thunderstorms out here are a truly majestic thing to witness.

17. 3 to five days is fairly predictable, but farther out is not that reliable in my area.

18. Knowing people who do weather research, our weather is very challenging to predict but we’ve spent *a lot* of time and money studying it. So while it’s difficult, our weather reporters are actually pretty accurate.

19. It depends on where you live.

20. The accuracy of the weather here in Raleigh can sometimes be hit or miss, mostly because if the direction of a front coming off the midwest is off by just a couple of degrees, it could make the difference between a powerful thunderstorm, or a overcast day.

21. Pretty accurate most times. But, you are correct in certain areas of the country.

22. The National Weather Service is the best weather prediction organization in the world.

    I am also certain they can tell you which specific cells in the US model are the most variable from predictions.

    Most of the time our weather prediction is highly accurate.

    I suspect the places that aren’t are mostly in the mountains or on the borders of major weather zones.

23. Historically it was hard to predict weather here. But over the last 100 years, it has gotten easier. And probably within the last 20 years it has gotten even more accurate.

24. The only time there are big questions is when winter storms roll in and major population areas are right on the freezing mark. We have one coming through right now. On the southern suburbs of my city it is a ice storm and 20 miles north it is staying colder and they are getting a foot of snow.

25. I just met with a guy that runs the weather forecasts for a big weather company. It’s absolutely fascinating.

    As others have said, the accuracy is pretty good and getting better. A big reason for that is sensors. In the past, companies would predict your local weather by using a national weather service station and then using math to determine what that meant to you. There were a few dozen. You could have been hundreds of miles away from one. There are now 122 now. And in addition to that, they have thousands of other independent collection points now. So they are less dependent on mathematical projections to determine your local weather. They have very local weather.

    Then add in other signals like satellite imagery for ambient moisture and cloud cover. Radar. Additional data points from devices. This is allowing them to not just be more accurate, but accurate further in advance. Ten years ago, you were doing great with a reliable 3 day forecast. Now? They’re getting ten day accuracy.

    It’s really a great time to be alive.

26. Since most of Africa is in the tropics, weather doesn’t vary day to day and month to month as much as it does at temperate latitudes.

    America is a huge country with nearly every single kind of environment that exists in the world, so predicting the weather on a country wide scale can be overwhelming unless you have lots of expensive equipment and specially trained people to interpret the data.

    As the predictions get better people expect more precision and accuracy from them, so they continue to complain about inaccurate predictions.

27. Every city in both the US & Canada believes it has uniquely bad drivers and uniquely volatile weather. Complaining about these things is a culturally accepted way to start small talk, it usually doesn’t mean these things are true

28. We use multiple types of radar, satellites, and other sensors. So our predictions are usually near-perfect the day before and reliably accurate a week before.

    I’m not sure what you mean by our weather is too complicated to predict. It’s the same rules of nature that you deal with in your country.

    Once in a while, there will be some freak weather that nobody predicted but that’s fairly unusual. Only happens once a year and usually only lasts for less than an hour.

29. I have two seasons: summer and a week of cold.

30. Weather predictions more than 72 hours out are really just educated guesses.
    The local forecasters in the Chicago area have become doomsayers because apparently that’s what sells. Anything more than a quarter inch of precipitation and a stiff breeze is portrayed as a CATEGORY-NINE DEATHSTORM.

31. Phoenix, Arizona is really easy. Boston is hard, because we have weather from the west and the south, and polar cold pushing south. But in general, it’s really good.

32. The ten day forecast is ridiculously accurate. Beyond that, it gets less so.

33. A lot of people don’t realize that long term weather models tend to be more accurate than short term models. I’m really into weather and am a trained weather spotter. Weather forecasting can be tricky in some spots of the nation when dealing with the day to day. Meteorologist in my area tend to show multiple models to give forecast as we live in an area that it gets complicated from time to time. It can be complicated but it’s far from impossible.

34. Not terribly. Although I do say that Michigan has Bi-Polar weather. Because of the lakes and mountains and whatnot they can have a warm summer day back-to-back with a day where it’s below freezing and snowing. The weather over there doesn’t know what to do with itself.

35. Depends on where in America you are trying to predict the weather. In most of the US it’s not too difficult to predict. In CA the poor forest management means it can burst into flames spontaneously and that can make it harder to predict the weather. In VA/MD around the US capital the weather is crazy, it can be 80 degrees one day and then have snow two days later.

36. How hard is it to predict in Europe?

37. I really don’t know.

38. I only (somewhat) trust weather a week into the future