What is more likely to come first: Another member exiting EU or a new one joining?

3 comments

1. I doubt that any country seriously tries to exit at the moment. Sure, you have Brexiteers who reason that it was a success, but I doubt you find anyone who’d say it’s a walk in the park as they hoped for. I think Brexit was a big warning sign for everyone who toyed with the idea. And this was one of the countries which should have been prepared best for it. Even Hungary which would be the most likely given it’s permanent controversies with the EU doesn’t officially aim for leaving at the moment, while in Poland the gouvernment who was permanently at odds with the EU just suffered a defeat in elections.

   So at the moment I don’t see any country leaving the EU (but if so, Hungary would still be the one I’d think being at risk most to try). New member? Currently there are four candidating countries with ongoing negotiations: Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. I’d say Montenegro should be done earliest of these four given it started first and seems to be front running regarding status of negotiations given how long they already negotiate.

   Of countries currently not applying (Application withdrawn or frozen) Iceland and Norway would be the most obvious picks, given the close relations to the EU. In Iceland it seems to have a lot of support in public opinion as well.

2. Another member exiting EU, and it will be Netherlands

   Except for UK, Norway, Iceland and Switzerland which don’t want to be a part of EU (besides they’re in Schengen Area so they are like EU members in practice), EU countries don’t want the other ones to become members of EU. EU has been using those countries for its own interest by giving demands but doesn’t keep the promises. My country is now aware of it, but some peoples are still naive.

3. I think a new member is likely come first. If you just see the news and think about what Hungary says you would say we will leave, but this government usually say something and does the opposite. We are so dependent on EU we can’t exit.