I guess like all things, the US’ position as the world’s superpower will come to an end. Appreciate this is conjecture but in your view how far off do you think we are from that happenin, how do you think that might come about and who do you think will take its place?

37 comments

  1. Unless the world community does a 180 on China and Russia, I would say it’s pretty secure for the foreseeable future.

  3. Unless the world shifts to an authoritarian tinge, I doubt China and Russia will be anything more than the supporters of corrupt developing countries with a desperate need for economic and political support. That isn’t to say China isn’t a powerful nation, they are, but they’re like a discount US with more economic power. The US being an English speaking country helps immensely with it’s ability to extend influence.

    The USSR was realistically a contender for the title of world leader, but we all know how that turned out. China could, theoretically, obtain the same status, but realistically they won’t.

  4. I don’t think in those terms. I am not trying to be anyone’s leader. We do lead (like competitively) in many areas, including our economy, military, tech development, medical/pharma development, etc.

    I do not see that changing anytime soon. China has a demographic and a financial problem, and we are in the process of a new era of globalization where we sort of align with countries where there is both a comparative advantage *and* reasonably compatible values. So…not China.

    And not Germany because they are both too small and facing demographic issues.

    And not Japan because they are also too small and aging very rapidly with a declining population.

    India has a super long way to go in terms of development. They have the demographics, but it would be a long journey.

    So…who do you think?

  6. Singular world leader? Depends how well we’re able to forge alliances in eastern Asia to keep China’s regional power ambitions at bay. I don’t think Russia has a long-term strategy to threaten Europe, more whether the EU ever tries to create a continental military.

    We’ll always be a leader in a multipolar world, the question is really whether we can continue as the worldwide hegemon.

    Edit: Always a little curious why OPs ask the questions they do – are you interested in this because of our role in supporting Israel? You seem to have some bias against them, as well as some bias against us, calling the UK “America’s bitch.”

  8. If Europe could ever get its head out of its ass, the EU could probably overtake us. I’m not holding my breath.

  9. I would say that the only way this happens is if the US collapses from within and an oppotunic enemy pounces. The US military is big, Stupid big. Crazy big. As long as the military-industrial complex continues to be propped up by the government, the best anyone can do is mutually assured destruction. Yeah, Russia or China can fire their nukes, but then the US will. And Ozymandias here’ll be the smartest man on the cinder.

  10. When we literally take over the world and go from world leader to world government.

  11. I don’t think there’s really a foreseeable future where the USA ceases to be the premier global superpower. If we fall from our current position, then everyone else is likely to go, as well. Even if that occurred? I doubt anyone would be able to recover as quickly as us.

  13. I hope not too much longer. We’re awful at it and it’s getting embarrassing.

    But fuck it, I’m all for not letting Putin become the world’s god-king.

  17. Unless anyone else can fund their military to the level of the United States, I’m pretty sure it’s superiority will outlive every single person alive today.

  18. We would need a massive civil war that destroys as a country. Something that goes on for years and has several million casualties and deindustrializes us for 20 years. Which despite what people say is getting less and less likely. As society and technology change, different things become more valuable. The Imperial age (pre-Civil War) had different priorities than the Industrial Revolution Era, and the same with the Post WW2 Era.

    In our current world order, with technology as we know it, its going to be the United States out of Washington DC. I have heard of the idea that some super AGI would make a new world power that is super localized and would usurp Washington DC, but I don’t really think that happens, a win in the United States is still a win. I put my hat in the prediction that the leading AI in the world will come from the United States, so if AI is the next source of global power, it will come from here.

    China is going go through a demographic collapse over the next few decades that will not only remove it from the running of global leader but could completely cause the country to dissolve. Much of Europe is going through a comparable, but slower and not as severe, demographic crises. Many countries are going to be challenged with transitioning to a country that has its largest cohort being people who are retired (meaning you have more people who are retired vs middle aged, more people middle aged vs young adults, more young adults vs kids). This isn’t going to happen in the United States, Millennials have already surpassed Boomers, this is a good thing. This is supposed to happen, successor generations are part of an ongoing timeline.

    The big thing is, we are going into “Whats next!” as far as the future of technology goes. A lot of stuff is in the pipeline that is going to remake the world. The coming food revolution could be every bit as impactful as when humans first domesticated plants and animals 10,000 years ago. It would effectively divorce food production from geography. The energy/storage revolution is going to drastically change the world and eliminates the geopolitical importance of oil. Not that oil won’t exist, it just won’t be some civilization defining resource. We are not going to have replicator level technology, but we are going to see some major changes. Likely as comparable as going from whale oil to petroleum.

    The leader in the next several waves of technology will be in the best position to be the next world power. The country who is going to be among the most resilient to handle the disruptions is likely the US.

  19. The United States will remain the leading world power for decades to come.

    There are no existing contenders with a “shot at the title”. Russia and China have terminal problems and are rapidly declining powers, hence the reason for their more aggressive policies lately. They are both in a “use it or lose it” situation in terms of their national security. The EU countries, along with Russia and China are in a demographic decline and all three have rapidly aging populations thus lacking the potential for future bursts of energy.

    The United States is geographically distant from the rest of the world and possess more than enough military power and economic foundation to maintain the power indefinitely. It has a world-spanning network of allies and infrastructure to support its interests abroad. Its most important trading partners – Mexico and Canada – are on the same continent AND share a continental economy with jaw-dropping amounts of resources. On top of it all, the United States has better demographics and the ability to absorb millions of immigrants to offset any declines.

    I simply can’t see any other nation or combination of nations that have even the remotest opportunity to supplant the US.

  21. China has solved all the problems that holds back US. But US can’t solve it because they have hard wired some aspects of their culture. Just like the Arabs have a hard wired culture coming on the way of their progress.

    Eg.

    – US is still under the fangs of religion (as modern as that religion may be). China is religion free.

    – US citizen’s dream is to quit job and live on rent money from property. China citizen’s dream is to work harder and smarter till they die.

    So, US leadership will absolutely vainsh if they don’t learn from China. The way China learnt from US when they were behind.

    Currently US would rather die than learn from China.

  22. We’re guaranteed the next century if biden can win reelection and Trump never get’s a second term.

  24. For the foreseeable future.

    China is experiencing a demographic crisis that the U.S. is immune to given our (relative to China) lax immigration policies — and the fact that people actually *want* to immigrate to the U.S. This, ironically, includes a lot of young Chinese people.

    In 20 years, China will have 1.25 workers per retiree. That’s going to be a huge, huge problem for their economy.

  28. I find it hard to believe the U.S. will ever fall from prominence as “The world leader” or one of several.

  29. Assuming the world doesn’t end in nuclear war, or the US doesn’t harmoniously agree to a divorce

    At least another 200 years more or less by default.

    Not that historically analogies are always the best, but everyone seems to think that we’re at the fall of Rome, but we’re much closer to the fall of the republic.

    Russia, China, and Western Europe are facing demographic collapse. They couldn’t take over the world if they wanted to.

    The power balance in Europe is shifting eastward and Russia doesn’t want that to happen. The power balance in Asia is shifting southward and China doesn’t want that to happen. The middle east is gearing up for another round of everyone vs everyone.

    Neither Trump nor Biden have shown any real desire to play world police. If/when shit kicks off, we’ll likely sit on the sidelines and provide military aid. We’ll get away with this because China, Russia, and Iran really don’t want to go to war with the US. They want us to fight ourselves and stay out of it. If WW3 does happen it will likely cause the US to wake the fuck up and come to the table with the other half of the country.

    The US, Mexico, and Canada might not be culturally close, but we all see the economic realities at play. We’re already doing the legwork on reindustrializing, building infrastructure, and planning trade routes. NAFTA 2.0 will serve as a blueprint until WW3 pushes the US into a much closer North American alliance that will likely result in a Monroe 3.0 attitude toward foreign policy.

  30. > Yes that’s why the Chinese government is currently begging their citizens to have second and third children.

    Better than forcing women to have a child when they are raped in America.

    Begging citizens to have children is far more better than forcing the citizens to have children by banning abortion.

  31. We always will be leader and everyone else will be our bitch until we don’t want to do so anymore. Who is going to do anything about it?

  32. People don’t like to hear this but they will remain the leader for decades to come. Unless other countries grow enough balls to do what the south did in 1861 or what Japan did in 1941 or whatever the talaban did in 2001 the U.S. has nothing to worry about.
    I mean when the south said there was a civil war the U.S. made sure over half a million Americans died, when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor the U.S. made sure millions of German, Japanese and Italian citizens died from 1942-1945 and from 2001 to 2021 between Iraq and Afghanistan we cant even give an exact number the U.S. just basically said “Roger” and bombed shit.
    My point is, millions have been killed by the U.S. over the last 75-80 years and it’s going to keep happening for about 75-80 more without any change. China, Russia and North Korea won’t do a thing, do you think American citizens will actually do anything? HA! They are to fat and suicidal to do anything the government has them where they want them unless they grow enough balls like the citizens of the French from 1790s America will stay the way it is for many decades to come and in reality it will get even more crazy

  33. As long as the US maintains good relations with Europe the throne is not threatened.
    Don’t let Trump fuck that up.
    Also as long as other powerful countries doesn’t fully align with each other. The good thing about autocrats is they all want to be top dog and therefore doesn’t fully align and backstab.

  34. Well let’s look at the competition:

    EU: they are our ally 

    Russia: they can’t even beat Ukraine a country that’s flat and extremely easy to invade so they are an absolute joke 

    China: we are at peak China, they are about to under go a demographic disaster that will reduce their power slowly as time goes on. 

    India: a bit of a wild card but they still have a ton of growth to go through before they can challenge us.

    So yea needless to say I don’t see anyone beating us anytime soon 

  35. One thing US needs to do is seriously invest in infrastructure. Roads , bridges & public transportation are in bad condition throughout the country. The world has invested in modern infrastructure and it actually shows in their cities.

  37. I don’t know. People have been claiming that China is imminently going to overtake us for the past 20 years. It never seems to happen. I’m not sold on the idea that America won’t continue being the leader of the free world.

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