I don’t think one will happen in my lifetime, however, every piece of land in the world has had blood on it, and I feel like it’s only a matter of time before war and destruction make its way to back America.
To me, I think it’d have to be something like a significant death or incident. But I can’t really imagine a serious escalation. (Maybe a perk of living a “cushy” American life?) what are your thoughts?
(Also I know nothing can be predicted and anything could turn in a second, but I’m just saying for our situation right now)
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No. Nothing. We’re comfortable and lazy.
Is there a percent chance less than zero?
Some folks need to get outside.
The big thing a lot of people tend to ignore when talking about another potential American Civil War is the fact that civil wars don’t tend to happen unless one or both sides see a real existential threat to their and their family’s safety and future. In the Civil War political and economic elites in the South feared that the federal government was going to abolish slavery, which was the economic and cultural underpinning of the entire society of the South. They genuinely believed that if slavery was abolished the entire society of the South would collapse, taking their wealth and way of life.
Nothing like this exists in the US today. There is extreme political polarization at a level not seen since the 1960s, but there isn’t an issue which one side genuinely believes the other will used to completely destroy their way of life and ability to support their families.
Basically, in order for a war like that to happen the side which instigates it needs to feel that going to war provides at least the same opportunity for a better future (if not a better opportunity) than their current conditions. We’re not there and I don’t think we’re anywhere close.
It’s going to start when a donkey wanders across the Oklahoma border, I just know it
I mean… Texas lawmakers are actually talking about secession and running ads implying they’d do it violently if needs be…
I think it’s certainly possible within my lifetime (I’m 35). Tensions have been boiling over for a while now. Unless something drastic changes in the next decade, something is gonna happen.
Hell Jan 6 was about as close to it as we’ve ever come in the last 100 years I think.
Do I think it will be like the first civil war? No I don’t think we’ll have a full on secession of multiple states and fighting a full scale war with a rebel nation. But I do think there’s a not insignificant chance of certain extremist political groups banding together to try and seize power locally if things don’t go their way.
Edit: to be clear, it’s not like I’m hoping it happens. I just think it’s dangerous for people to just say “eh, it’ll never happen”. There’s lots of things we said would never happen… Until they did. Not saying we all need to be prepping for doomsday and all out war, but maybe be a little less dismissive of these things.
I feel like there’s quite a good chance.
have you heard the far rights new catchphrase about how democracy is Marxism…..
No I don’t because I think Americans are far too complacent and detached from the rest of society to actually organize to the level that we would see at least two large factions fighting. We’re so used to living in our little air-conditioned bubble of home > work > home. American “individualism” is an empty value that serves a more handy role of dividing and conquering. Caring about your neighbors would be bad for the guys upstairs. So naturally we are taught not too and no one questions.
no, I think if anything a worst case scenario for the future of political violence in the US is going to look a lot more like the years of lead in Italy or 1960s/70s Turkey.
I can’t even answer these questions without laughing. No, its not going to happen. We’re too comfortable and united for that.
I’ve been imagining possible outcomes if the Republicans pass legislation to ban abortion federally. In the event that liberal states (where legal abortion is supported by a large majority of the population) act to shield abortion providers and allow them to continue operating there, and the Republican-controlled federal government decides to intervene, a crisis may be precipitated. The FBI may be sent in to arrest governors and other elected officials, and depending on the response of local police forces and the national guard, it is remotely possible that a larger conflict would flare up.
An actual ‘shooting’ war with front lines and different armies fighting under different flags? I’d be surprised. The faction most chomping at the bit for one is so institutionally protected that they effectively get two and a half touchdowns just for showing up. If they hadn’t, say, tried hanging every senator to the left of Romney two and a half years ago their electoral fortunes would have probably been slightly better in the near term; rocking the boat is really only self defeating. They can have courts reconfigure entire aspects of American society and generally stonewall any kind of change, regardless of what even a supermajority of the populace feels is right.
And the number of people advocating for revolutionary communism or whatever could fill a modestly sized auditorium. That’s before you narrow it down to Che types who actually have organizations, plans to acquire guns, and who aren’t just informants.
I would say this, though: a maximalist reading of the 2nd amendment (‘everyone should be open carrying all of the time, for the express purpose of assassinating elected officials, our neighbors, or even you if we deem you an Agent of Tyranny’) coupled with a common American definition of ‘Tyranny’ now being ‘when Applebees says no shoes no shirt, no service’ seems to be a recipe for low-intensity civil war, in every street and classroom, forever.
How does the average American daily rates of violent crime compare to, say, the height of The Troubles? How does it compare when you narrow that down to just ‘political violence’? I’d be interested in any kind of study comparing the two.
I think we would see World War III well before we see another American civil war.
A civil war with the most powerful and sophisticated military in existence. It wouldn’t even be able to escalate to that point.
I don’t believe so.
There are some people who are *really* into the prospect, but the good news is, they’re mostly disorganized idiots and the terminally online. (I have genuine contempt for foreigners who seem to want it solely for the entertainment and “told you so” factor.)
The worst case scenario I can think of would be more like the Troubles (with a highly motivated but small insurgency vs a government too big to actually “beat”) than the US Civil War. The only difference being that our equivalent don’t have a position they want to negotiate toward, more a batch of disproven Q theories and Fox News Alerts .
A civil war? I don’t think so. Civil unrest on a national level though? Yes, and that worries me very much, but I think I’m one of the only people who worries about that.
Its possible but if it did it would take a form that wouldnt be immediately recognized as such.
Political assassinations and political rioters clashing in the streets with firearms before it would all be cracked down on.
I mean pro-abortionists are currently calling for violence and are committing hundreds of cases of arson on anti-abortion clinics and social welfare offices… thats straight up warfare and terrorism since its politically motivated. Then theres that attempted assassination of Justice Kavanaugh.
Is that considered civil war?
Economic crisis would be the catalyst. Already, several states have taken measures to liberalize monetary policy. It won’t be a hot war, rather I believe states will just start ignoring DC.
I’m sure there are Americans that have seen *a* civil war. Just not an American one.
Please stop trying to meme Americans into war, thanks.
The only way I “realistically” see a civil war happening is if it occurs as just another front in WW3 and is propped up entirely by a hostile foreign power.
People who could actually be willing to take up arms against the state are too few and disorganized to put up a fight reminiscent to the Civil War. Outside the context of WW3, the worst I could see actually happening is maybe a state like Texas tries to secede (they’d be crushed rather quickly, though) or existing militias (e.g., Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, Three Percenters, etc.) get even more radicalized and become a persistent, quasi-organized terror threat. The level of violence would be, IMO, more comparable to that of the Troubles in Northern Ireland or the current state of the insurgency in Iraq than it would be to the American Civil War.
A shooting Civil War? Unlikely. A cultural Civil War? We’re already in that.
I think if politicians miraculously made it happen, the general population and maybe even the military would not go along with it. Too many people join the military to fight *for* their country and most people’s beliefs aren’t extreme enough to fight against it
We can’t have a civil war. We need to be at work on Monday.
I think we are closer than what a lot people want to admit, but still pretty far away. You have one side so hell bent on merging church and state. Not to mention the same side is also wanting to strip rights away from anyone and everyone that doesn’t fit their bill. Conservatives are starting fall into fascism territory. I think eventually people will see that and start to fight back. You could argue that treason on Jan. 6 could’ve easily ignited a Civil War.
Unlikely.
We don’t have the geographic division that we did with the Civil War. It’s not north vs. south. It’s largely a few dense urban areas versus everywhere else, but even that isn’t 100%. Those urban centers have a split, as does everywhere else. A civil war in this context would be neighbor vs. neighbor, and in case you didn’t notice, we’re too well armed to allow that to happen.
I think it is entirely unlikely. However… Many conservatives I know think there will be one. Specifically when the government “tries to take their guns”
Definitely
Just a note: SCOTUS has officially overturned Roe V Wade. If you don’t think this is moving us closer to civil war, you’re not paying attention.
Most Americans are far too out of shape and content with their tv shows and snackies to ever act. Typing and arguing much easier.
We absolutely could have a civil war. The podcast “It Could Happen Here” from, war-corrispondent, Robert Evans talks about the growing likelihood of a second US Civil War. Most experts seem to agree with him.
Mostlikely it’ll be something like Jan 6th. But much wider scale, with the State and the military trying to hold area. However, 20+ years of war against insurgencies, means we have no shortage of people who have fought insurgencies as part of that military and know how the military keeps losing against them.
It’s already starting, and will accelerate no later than 2026. The catalysts are our nation’s continued political polarization; rising income inequality; health equity and healthcare costs; the judicial activism of the Supreme Court; unchecked gun violence; and the dystopian denial of women’s rights. I would place better than 50-50 odds that American democracy is dead by 2030 as a result. What replaces it will be anybody’s guess. I would not be surprised if it is a form of blatant and overt Constitution-shredding authoritarianism a la Vladimir Putin, however.
Regional “civil wars” yes. I don’t think we will have a full on North v South style war.
My dad thinks the Democrats are gonna come to his house and take all of his guns by force, and then do the same with another 40 million or so gun owning households. The NRA has him *fucked up*.
No I don’t think it’s possible this day and age.
Back in the 1800s the military was all made up of local units so it wasn’t that hard to split off to north vs south. But how would that work now? The US military is all over the country and it’s made up of people from everywhere. If you go to an Army base in Texas it’s not all a bunch of Texans stationed there , it’s people from all over.
Plus I just don’t think most people have the passion for these issues that they had back then. It’s all just social media nonsense, not enough to actually take up arms over.
Yes. It is a very real possibility.
We now have an activist Supreme Court who only cares about GOP political points. And some point they will make a ruling which the blue states will not abide.
Blue states will not accept being under the rule of red states as they give money to those red states in amounts far more than they take in.
And this will lead to a split.
Maybe if roe v Wade gets overturned
Oh wait that just happened
Welp
Time to move to Canada
People can agree and actually talk with one another outside the internet. Everyone has separate opinions and we still have issues that unite all of us. We can’t say that for the people of the civil war and I can’t see the US fighting itself again. Not to mention that the economic and military differences of the north and south that made them unbalanced enough to consider war no longer exist. At most I could see a state voting to split in different parts. Like California or Texas.
Doubtful.
Nope, not a fucking chance. I don’t think the average person is motivated enough to suffer for years in a civil war.
I noticed a couple years ago people kept bringing this up on social media.
Why is that? It is almost like planting a seed it seems like. No, why would there be?
It would be really foolish. Only our enemies would want that, or want us to feel it is inevitable.
I don’t want to ever see a civil war, and I honestly doubt one would happen. But who knows, there’s always someone dumb enough to pull the trigger